AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading3 to 4 cents lower at midday.  The weekly Export Inspections report this morning was neutral at 529,801 MT. That was up from 409,212 MT last week but down from 769,223 MT a year ago. Accumulated exports since September 1 are still 42 million bushels ahead of last year. USDA reported 116,000 MT of grain sorghum sold to “unknown” this morning in the daily reporting system. The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts adding 147 contracts to their net long position, which was reported at 186,954 contracts as of the Tuesday close.

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.69, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.81 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

May 15 Corn is at $3.90 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.97 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 7 to 8 cents lower at midday after posting an 18 cent gain in the nearby contract on Friday. Argentine soybean planting is now estimated to be 35% completed. Brazilian planting is still running about 7% behind the 5 year average pace for this date, while about 3% behind last year. Weekly export inspections from USDA this morning were 2.784 MMT (102.3 million bushels). This is the third 100+ mbu week in the last 4. Shipments YTD are 19.41 MMT, 125 million bushels larger than last year. It is no surprise that crush plants were hiking their basis on Friday to keep beans from bypassing the plants into export channels. USDA announced a 235,000 MT sale to China under the daily reporting system.

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $10.31 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $10.37 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

May 15 Soybeans are at $10.43 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 15 Soybeans are at $10.47 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal is at $376.10, down $2.30,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil is at $33.25, up $0.56

Wheat

Wheat futures are close to UNCH at midday. Weekly wheat export loadings jumped to 447,353 MT in the week ending November 20. That was more than triple the week before, and almost 125 thousand MT larger than the same week in 2013. The YTD is still 207 million bushels below year ago but this was an improvement.  Cold temperatures in Russia are potentially hurting their winter wheat production for 2015.  In the week ending Nov 18, managed money accounts had decreased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 19,254 contracts, bringing their net position to down to -11,881 contracts.  Their net long position in KC wheat grew by 753 contracts from the previous week.

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat is at $5.46 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat is at $6.06 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat is at $5.82 1/4, down 1 cent

Cattle

Cattle futures are trading $.30 to $1.95 lower at midday and printing new lows. The USDA COF report showed the number on feed November 1 was 100.45% of a year ago. Placements were 99.12% of year ago. Both numbers had been expected to be smaller. Beef stocks in cold storage were 85.18% of a year ago, but did build 0.19% from the previous month.  Wholesale beef prices are higher this morning, with Choice 600-900 lb product up $1.18 and Select up 25 cents.

Dec 14 Cattle are at $169.575, down $1.325,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $170.175, down $1.975,

Apr 15 Cattle are at $168.650, down $1.775,

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle are at $233.925, down $2.425

Mar 15 Feeder Cattle are at $232.150, down $2.300

Apr 15 Feeder Cattle are at $232.575, down $2.025

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are anywhere from $.40 to $1.05 higher at midday. The monthly USDA Cold Storage report showed frozen pork stocks at the end of October were 92.88% of a year earlier, and down 3.68% from the previous month.  The pork carcass cutout value was up 26 cents in the morning USDA report, at $93.65.  All cuts were higher except bellies. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 9 cents at $88.86 this morning. The WCB and IA/MN hog markets were not reported due to confidentiality restrictions. The ECB was quoted 46 cents lower at $83.63, with the national base $1.28 lower.

Dec 14 Hogs are at $91.625, up $0.975,

Feb 15 Hogs are at $91.000, up $0.550

Apr 15 Hogs are at $93.175, up $0.225

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 69 to 102 lower this morning. The US dollar index has traded at new highs this morning, but is currently lower compared to the Friday settlement. The euro is firmer. Cert stocks available for December futures delivery were reported at 23,824 bales as of November 21. There were 965 bales removed, but 2,060 additional bales certified. The Cotlook A index is up 50 points at 66.40.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that as of the Tuesday close, managed money accounts had flipped to a net-short position.  Their net short position was reported as -3,454 contracts, a net swing of -18,336 contracts from the previous weekly report.

Dec 14 Cotton is at 59.01, down 75 points,

Mar 15 Cotton is at 58.55, down 97 points

May 15 Cotton is at 59.38, down 107 points

Jul 15 Cotton is at 60.37, down 104 points


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