News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures are trading higher at midday. Traders were looking for USDA to show 700,000 MT to 1.3 MMT of export sales made in the week ending 10/16. USDA reported the actual total was 1,031,200 MT. USDA also reported strong weekly sorghum export sales and export shipments to China. Weekly ethanol production was up 11,000 bpd from the previous week, and inventories declined a half million gallons despite the larger production and somewhat smaller plant operating margins. Enough rain got into central Brazil to allow planting to resume.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher at midday, mostly on strong export sales in the weekly report this morning. Traders were looking for USDA to report net weekly export sales of 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. The actual figure for combined old and new crop bookings was 2.17 MMT. The largest buyer was China, in for more than 1.7 MMT. Soybean meal bookings were only 23,000 MT vs. trade ideas in the 150,000 to 350,000 MT range, due to cancellations. Both soybean and meal export commitments remain well ahead of the average pace for mid-October. Dec meal futures are also sharply higher at midday. Brazilian producers have been able to resume planting in the central part of the country after some needed rains arrived. That also meant fresh Brazilian hedge sales.
Wheat futures are trading mixed with CHI trading more than 4 cents higher, MPLS up two cents, but KC is slightly lower. Trade ideas for the weekly export sales report were 350,000 to 500,000 MT. The USDA indicated net sales for the week ending October 16 were 275,200 MT, after 24,200 MT of decreases. Argentina has issued export permission for 400,000 MT of old crop wheat, expected to remain in South America for the most part if not all of it. Brazil is the main buyer of Argentine export wheat and to the degree they can get it purchases from North America are reduced.
Cattle futures are trading around 15 cents higher at midday, feeders are 40 cents to $1.20 higher. Cash cattle trade has been quiet, without enough sales reported yet for a market trend. Asking prices are $168-170, with $260 or higher floating around in the north. Wholesale prices are lower this morning. Choice boxed beef prices were $0.66 lower, while Select boxes were on average 49 cents lower per hundred pounds. The USDA Cold Storage report was slightly bearish, showing an 8% jump in beef in storage during September. Stocks were still 16% smaller than year ago. USDA reported weekly beef export sales for last week totaled 7,600 MT vs. 8,000 MT the previous week.
Hog futures are mostly lower at midsession following some triple digit gains on Wednesday. The USDA average pork carcass cutout value continues to leak lower, down $0.69 to $101.85 in the morning report. The average carcass base price was not reported in the ECB, nor the IA/MN marketing area due to confidentiality, but they were $3.20 lower in the WCB; down to $88.98. On Wednesday afternoon, USDA showed that total pork in Cold Storage on September 30 was just over 100% of August 2014 and down 4.1% from year ago. The 10 year average increase in September pork stocks vs. August is 6.0% vs. 0.02% this year. USDA this morning reported net weekly pork export sales through October 16 were 20,100 MT with 500 MT of the total booked for 2015.
Cotton futures are trading 9 to 55 points higher at midday. Estimated futures volume on Wednesday was under 13,000 contracts, vs. 18,708 officially on Tuesday. Cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange were mostly lower this morning. Cert stocks for Dec futures delivery are currently at 15,928 bales, with 31 decertified on October 21. USDA this morning reported 86,000 RB of US cotton was sold into the export market last week. This included 4,700 RB of pima, with the balance upland varieties.