News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures closed around 4 to 5 cents higher on the day. Strength in the wheat markets stemming from the Russia/Ukraine tensions brought some support to the price of corn futures. Trade estimates for weekly export sales were in the 700,000 to 950,000 MT range, with nearly all of it expected to be new crop since the marketing year ends August 31. USDA reported net weekly new crop sales of 695,600 MT for the reporting week. Old crop cancellations were -32,700 MT. New crop bookings have averaged more than 750 TMT per week since the week ending July 3. Ethanol production was down significantly this week, hitting a 14 week low, and production slipped 2.56%, down to 913 thousand barrels per day. The national average cash corn price on Wednesday was $3.39; in the middle of the range it has been in since about July 21.
Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,
Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, up 4 cents
May 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, up 4 cents
Soybean futures closed higher on solid new crop export sales. Bean meal is also trading higher at midday. Trade estimates for weekly export sales were from 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT range. Old crop cancellations are not uncommon this close to the end of the marketing year, this week the USDA reported reductions of -62,800 MT for old crop beans. New crop bookings came in above the range of expectations at 1,290,800 MT. A total of more than 8.5 MMT of new crop bookings have been reported in the past 6 weeks of export sales reports. August rains are what the bean plants need to fill out their pods, but concerns of SDS and white mold problems in parts of IL, IA and MO have the market on guard. Chinese futures for January 2015 settled just under $20/bushel, with soybean meal around $530/MT.
Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.73 3/4, down 12 cents,
Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.28 3/4, up 5 cents,
Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,
Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.43 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,
Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $433.20, up $16.70,
Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at $32.64, down $0.03
Wheat futures closed higher on the day. They were sharply higher by midday, but finished mostly about halfway to their respective session highs. It was another day where the wheat market took off on news of escalating Ukraine/Russia tensions, until profit taking kicked in and the market tucked back in for more reasonable gains. September MPLS wheat traded as high as $6.29, but closed at $6.12 positing a daily gain of less than two cents. The story is that Ukraine is claiming that Russian troops have invaded, and is challenging the West to respond. Weekly export sales reported by the USDA this morning were 403,600 MT, which was on the higher end of pre-report trade expectations, but well inside the range. Export sales since the second week of the marketing year average more than 430,000 MT per week.
Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.56 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents,
Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.35, up 7 cents,
Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12, up 1 3/4 cents
Cattle futures closed sharply higher. Feeder cattle were also mostly well into the green, with the deferred contracts gaining significantly on the soon to expire August contract. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales for last week totaled10,600 MT. That compares to the average of 10,912 per week over the previous seven weeks. Wholesale beef prices sank again today, with Choice boxes down 52 cents, and Select boxes losing $2.33 from thei Wednesday afternoon averages. From Thursday to Thursday Choice beef lost 1.43% and Select beef lost 2.3%. Cash cattle trade has started to pickup, but is still reported fairly light. The national weighted average for >80% choice steers is $153, and the average dressed price was reported at $242.81. Week to date slaughter at 460,000 head is up 6,000 head from last week, but off about 77,000 head from the same point a year ago.
Aug 14 Cattle closed at $154.650, up $1.450,
Oct 14 Cattle closed at $150.100, up $2.275,
Dec 14 Cattle closed at $152.700, up $1.925,
Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $218.525, up $0.375
Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $217.150, up $2.675
Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $214.775, up $2.625
Hog futures closed lower on the day. The October contract slipped 45 cents, but February hogs ended the session down only 2.5 cents. The USDA Export Sales report showed 7,600 MT booked for the week ending August 21. That was much lower than the last few weekly totals, as we suspect the late-reporting shown over the previous three weeks is mostly caught up. The pork carcass cutout averaged $0.44 higher today, after slipping below a hundred bucks in the morning report. Loins and Bellies were supportive, but Rib and Butt primals were sharply lower. Week to date FI slaughter is estimated to be 1.645 million head, which is 29K head above last week, but 77K head below year ago. Cash hogs were $2.00 lower in the WCB, and $.191 lower in the IA/MN marketing area, but the ECB prices were not reported.
Oct 14 Hogs closed at $95.475, down $0.450,
Dec 14 Hogs closed at $90.375, down $0.125
Feb 15 Hogs closed at $89.900, down $0.025
Cotton futures closed sharply lower, taking out most of the gains from the last few days. Heavy rains in the forecast for the drier areas put pressure on the cotton market because they help to fill out bolls, but the areas that were moisture deprived for more than a month will not be able to fully recover, even with fresh rains. This morning, USDA reported US export sales for the week ending August 21 totaled 264,400 RB of upland cotton and 2,900 RB of pima. The largest buyer was China, in for 92,800 RB. Chinese futures on the Zhengzhou exchange were lower. The US dollar was higher on the day. The Cotlook A index is now 76.05, up 0.30 from the previous day. Cert stocks have declined to 71,497 bales, with 4,751 decerts.
Oct 14 Cotton closed at 67.14, down 116 points,
Dec 14 Cotton closed at 66.58, down 88 points
Mar 15 Cotton closed at 67.18, down 63 points