News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures closed mostly 6 cents lower on the day. Weather forecasts are favorable to a strong finish through the end of the month, promising more rapid harvest progress as the crop matures, but with some rain interruptions. CCC reported 3.2 million bushels of 2014 crop corn have now entered the 9 month loan program. USDA announced 375,936 MT of new crop corn was sold to Mexico and reported under the daily reporting system for sales above 100,000 MT. The weekly COT report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts adding a net 5,579 contracts to their net long position, bringing them to a net long position of 87,045 contracts.
Soybean futures closed mostly 14 cents lower on the day, and Nov futures lost 28 cents on the week, or 2.87% on the week. Soybean export sales commitments (shipments and contracts) already cover 55% of the USDA forecast for the year. They are well ahead of the 48% average for this date. The US Dollar index was up more than 400 points today and testing some multi-year resistance. USDA announced another 1.236 MMT of export sales to China under the daily reporting system. These are likely part of the 4.8 MMT deal announced earlier in the week. The Friday night CFTC report shows the large spec funds getting less bearish by 6,057 contracts last week.
Wheat futures closed 9 to 14 cents lower on the day and were 28 to 43 cents lower on the week. Informa economics is looking for a 16 million bushel increase in the US wheat production figure released by the USDA on September 30, stemming from what they think will be a 0.2 bushel per acre increase in the average yield. US Export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) total 51% of the much reduced USDA forecast for the entire year. They are running ahead of the 49% average for this date. The EU approved 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses this week. Egypt tonight is tendering to buy wheat for October 21-31 delivery. Spec funds trimmed their net long position in KC wheat by 5,151 contracts last week, and also extended their big net short in Chicago by another 5,380 contracts.
Cattle futures settled 22 lower to 87 cents higher today. Feeders showed some strength today with the November contract closing $1.40 higher. Wholesale beef prices were lower, with Choice losing $1.17 and Select off $2.48 from Thursday afternoon. Weekly estimated slaughter including Saturday is 571K head, off 21K head from last week and down 60K head from the same week a year ago. Trade estimates for the USDA Cattle on Feed report this afternoon were calling for a 1.1% drop in the September 1 On Feed number. The report showed Cattle on Feed at 99.2% of year ago. Placements were 97.1% of year ago, and marketings came in at 90.4%, accounting for the slightly larger than expected September 1 figure. The large managed money spec funds added 7,855 contracts to their net long position in cattle futures during the week ending 9/16/14.
Hog futures closed with the October contract limit up, and solid gains for Dec and February. The CME Index was up another $0.59 at $104.74. The pork carcass cutout was lower in the PM report, off 68 cents from yesterday at $113.54. Carcass based cash hog prices were $1.00 higher in the IA/MN marketing area, 86 cents higher in the WCB, but were 45 cents lower in the ECB. Estimated weekly slaughter through Saturday is 2.05 million head, just 3K head smaller than last week, but 128K head smaller than the same week last year. Managed money accounts had added a net 4,984 contracts to their net long position as of the Tuesday close, a 9.78% increase from the previous week CFTC report.
Cotton futures closed with losses of 66 to 91 points in the front three contracts, each of which came off of their session lows this afternoon. Deliveries begin next Wednesday against the October contract. US cotton export sales commitments are now 55% of the forecast for the year vs. the 5 year average of 45%. The recent sales pace has been slower, but there is some cushion. The US Dollar Index was more than 400 points higher today, keeping the pressure on the price of most US commodities, and dampening the outlook for exports. The Cotlook A Index is at 73.50, down 0.55 from yesterday. ICE Certified stocks are down to 21,218 bales as we approach the October contract delivery period, with 23,295 decertified yesterday. Spec funds added a net 2,856 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, bringing them to a net long 5,430 contracts.