AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed fractionally lower on Monday after being as much as 4 cents higher earlier in the day. The USDA Crop Progress report this afternoon showed that 79% of the national crop has reached the silking stage, up 9 points from the previous 5 year average. Doughing is right on schedule at 13% complete. Our Brugler500 Index pegged the crop condition at 389 as of Sunday night, identical with last week. Trade analysts on average expected corn conditions to be slightly lower from last week. This morning, it was shown that 1.307 MMT of US corn was inspected for export during the week ending July 21. This was down 1.6% from the previous week, but nearly 18% larger than the same week in 2015. Marketing year to date inspections are now just 2.8% behind last year. The Brazilian safrinha harvest is 50% complete.

Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.41 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.51, down 1/2 cent

May 17 Corn settled at $3.56 3/4, down 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended with losses of around 22 cents. There was 76% of the US soybean crop with blooms as of Sunday night according to this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. This was up 10 points from the previous 5 year average. Pod set is 9 points ahead of schedule, at 35% complete. The 18-state average crop condition rating was pegged at 377 on our Brugler500 Index, up 1 point from last week. Conditions were generally expected to decline per pre-report surveys. Export Inspections totaled 700,715 MT during the week ending July 21. This was up 75% from the previous week, and nearly 6 times as large as the same week last year. Through July 21, marketing year to date inspections are 5.6% behind last year, as weekly inspections have been larger than last year for three consecutive weeks.

Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $9.83 3/4, down 22 3/4 cents,

Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.76 3/4, down 22 cents,

Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.66 1/4, down 22 cents,

Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.67, down 22 1/4 cents,

Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $338.90, down $7.80,

Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at $29.46, down $0.75

Wheat

Wheat futures settled 1 3/4 to 8 1/2 cents higher, led by the SRW market. Reports have surfaced stating that total French wheat production this season could be under 30 MMT. French farmers raised nearly 41 MMT of wheat in 2015/16. The US winter wheat harvest was 83% complete as of Sunday night, according to the weekly USDA Crop Progress report this afternoon. This is 4 points ahead of the 5 year average pace. The national spring wheat condition rating is now at 368 on our Brugler500 Index, down 3 points from last week, and 14 points below the initial 2016 rating. Weekly US export inspections were 549,894 MT during the week ending July 21. This was up 23% from the previous week, and 21% larger than the same week in 2015. YTD inspections through July 21 are up 29% from the same period last year.

Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.56 1/4, up 6 cents,

Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.49 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.13, up 2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were limit up on Monday following a bull friendly Cattle on Feed report. The report released on showed July 1 cattle on feed 101.17% of a year ago, below the average pre-report estimate of 101.6%. June placements were pegged at 102.97% of a year ago and marketings at 109.44%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/22 was 7 cents lower to $139.15. Cash cattle trade recorded a few dressed sales at $183 on Monday. Friday’s live sales ranged from $113 to $115. The average price of choice boxed beef was $1.50 lower on Monday to $198.59, and select prices were down 13 cents to $189.44. Beef production last week reached 484.6 million pounds, slightly lower than the previous week, but 10% larger than the same week in 2015. FI slaughter on Monday was estimated at 113,000 head, up 3,000 head from last Monday, and 8,000 head bigger than the same Monday a week ago. According to the USDA Crop Progress report, 53% of the national pastures are in good to excellent condition, down 3 points from last week.

Aug 16 Cattle settled at $112.950, up $3.000,

Oct 16 Cattle settled at $111.075, up $3.000,

Dec 16 Cattle settled at $112.200, up $3.000,

Aug 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $141.700, up $4.500

Sep 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $140.325, up $4.500

Oct 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $139.300, up $4.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished the day 40 to 57.5 cents higher.The CME Lean Hog index for 7/21 was 74 cents lower to $77.13. The USDA national average carcass cutout price on Monday was up 41 cents to $88.89. The average price of the rib cutout was $2.86/cwt more expensive than Friday night. The national weighted average cash hog base price was down 87 cents. Regional averages were 81 cents lower in IA/MN, and down 83 cents in the WCB. Estimated FI slaughter on Monday was 429,000 head, up 19,000 head from last week, and 12,000 head larger than the same day in 2015. Last week, pork production was estimated at 447.4 million pounds, slightly higher than the week before, and 2% larger than the same week a year ago.

Aug 16 Hogs settled at $75.675, up $0.400,

Oct 16 Hogs settled at $64.350, up $0.450

Dec 16 Hogs settled at $59.050, up $0.575

Cotton

Cotton futures closed 34 to 40 points lower. Per the USDA Crop Progress report released after the close, 85% of the US cotton crop had reached the squaring stage as of last night. This was up 1 point from the previous 5 year average. Boll setting was 46% complete, 3 points ahead of schedule. The condition rating was pegged at 345 on our Brugler500 Index, down 7 points week over week. June cotton exports from India totaled 155,954 170kg bales, a year over year decline of 26%. Indian cotton export prices are 8 to 10% more expensive in comparison to other international cotton producers. The Cotlook A Index was up 75 points to 84.05. ICE reported that there were 118,170 certified bales in storage warehouses on July 22, with 1,908 decertified bales. Last CME Lean Hog Index 21-Dec 77.87 -0.51 night, the USDA set the AWP for the upcoming week at 65.28. The LDP through Thursday remains at zero.

Oct 16 Cotton settled at 72.120, down 40 points,

Dec 16 Cotton settled at 72.290, down 39 points

Mar 17 Cotton settled at 72.980, down 34 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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