AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures finished fractionally to 2 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday. Showers moved across NE into MN and IA overnight, and were rolling across the Corn Belt today. Analysts with Lanworth are estimating the 2017/18 corn crop at 13.6 bbu, down 4% from their previous estimate. The market is waiting to see if the acreage assumption in that number is stable. This morning’s EIA report showed daily ethanol production for the week of June 23 25,000 barrels per day higher than the previous week at 1.015 million bpd. That is the largest wk/wk increase since the last week in October 2016. Ethanol stocks also shrank to the lowest point in almost five months to 21.838 million barrels. The East Coast and the Rockies were the only regions to see an increase. Estimates ahead of tomorrow’s export sales report are running 350,000-550,000 MT for old crop, with 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop weekly sales.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.66 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.76 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.86, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed with gains of 2 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents on Wednesday. July 17 soy meal was up 60 cents, with soy oil 4 points higher in the front month. Traders are expecting 200,000-400,000 MT for old crop sales in Thursday’s export sales report, as new crop is projected at 100,000-300,000 MT. Total soy meal sales are estimated at 50,000-200,000 MT, with soy oil in the 5,000-29,000 MT range. Lanworth increased their 2017/18 soybean production estimate to 4.07 bbu, up 1% over their last estimate. Abiove updated their 2016/17 Brazilian production estimate to 113.2 MMT, 0.7 MMT above their previous estimate. They also increased their Brazil annual export projection to 63 MMT (2.314 billion bushels!), up 1.3 MMT (+47.8 mbu).

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.14, up 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.19, up 3 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.20 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.29 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $294.60, up $0.60,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $32.12, up $0.04

Wheat

Wheat futures showed gains of mostly 3 to 5 cents in the KC and CBT contracts on Wednesday, as MPLS carried the weight, 23 1/4 cents in nearby July and hitting new multi-year highs. A few producers in SW KS are reporting that yields are down from last year. Elevators are firming basis in order to capture the grain for storage hedges. The trade is projecting 2017/18 export sales will be 350,000-550,000 in Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report. Last week beat expectations of 500,000 MT at 542,881 MT. Temperatures are cooling off slightly in Western Europe, with Russia and Ukraine still experiencing warmer temps.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.57 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.61 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.04 3/4, up 23 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures came back to end the day with gains of 60 cents to $1.10 in most contracts. Feeder cattle futures also finished 60 cents to $2.10 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 44 cents on June 27 at $146.86. Wholesale beef prices were sharply lower again in the Wednesday afternoon report, with choice boxes down $4.48 at $229.43. Select was $2.59 lower, with an average of $212.67. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $16.76. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday was 350,000 head, 1,000 above last week and 11,000 greater than last year. Trade on the FCE this morning showed sales of $119-$120 on 3 lots, as 480 of the 2,554 head were sold. The average price on all lots sold was $119.68. Outside of that there were a few dressed sales of $190-$191 in the North.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $120.250, up $0.650,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $115.625, up $0.600,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $113.650, up $0.875,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.400, up $1.525

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.400, up $1.875

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.075, up $2.100

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were 52.5 cents to $1.45 higher in the front months, with deferred contracts 2.5 to 47.5 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/26 was up another 48 cents to $91.10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.23 in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $103.54. All primal cuts except the ham were higher. The national base hog carcass price was 22 cents lower with a weighted average of $85.59 in the p.m. report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,308,000 head through Wednesday, 17,000 more than the previous week and 25,000 head above last year.Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released at 2:00 p.m. CST, analysts are expecting the March-May pig crop to rise 3% over last year, with pigs per litter 1.3% larger.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $87.925, up $1.450,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $79.475, up $0.925

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $68.175, up $0.525

Cotton

Cotton futures settled 3 to 28 points lower on Wednesday, despite a lower dollar. The US dollar was down 349 points today. The Cotlook A index for June 26 was 25 points higher at 83.20 cents/lb. Analysts are projecting a second week of strong export sales, heavily skewed to new crop delivery. The certified stocks level dropped another 63,131 bales to 314,986 bales, after yesterday’s 111,040 bale plunge. China sold 19,700 MT of cotton from state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 66.23% of the total 29,800 MT offered. The Presidents of the Cotton Association in India is estimating cotton production in the country could hit 29.3 million bales, compared to the USDA projection of 28 million bales.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 74.410, down 3 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 69.470, down 28 points

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.290, down 23 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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