AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.


Corn futures finished the day with losses of 2 to 4 cents, on concerns that a reduction of the Argentine export tariff will provide the global market with more corn. Dec15 corn gave back nearly all of its gains from Monday. Argentina is projected to produce 25.6 MMT worth of corn in 2015/16. The Chicago Board of Trade will have normal operating hours tomorrow, but will be closed Thursday due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. According to DTN, the national average cash price for corn was $3.47 1/4 as of Monday night, 6 cents higher than it was last year at this time. The national average basis was -$0.20, 11.5 cents stronger than it was on this date in 2014. The IGC states that US corn export prices were $171/ton on Monday, down $19/ton from the same period a year ago, but $1/ton higher from Friday.

Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 16 Corn closed at $3.74 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

Jul 16 Corn closed at $3.80 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents


Soybean futures closed steady to around a penny lower, with January down 1/2 cent. The idea that Argentine farmers will sell soybeans that they had been holding off the market is one the market has been considering for some time. The USDA estimated that Argentine soybean production will reach 57 MMT in 2015/16, the second largest on record for the country, below 2014/15 production of 60.8 MMT. Data from the International Grains Council shows that US soybean export spot prices were equal to those of Argentina, at $347/ton (2014 at this time: US:$424/ton, ARG:$452/ton).  DTN data showed that the national average soybean basis was -$0.45 on Monday, more than a dime stronger than it was on 11/10, and 6.5 cents stronger than it was at this time a year ago.  The most recent national average cash price is $8.19 1/4.

Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.63 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/4, unch,

May 16 Soybeans closed at $8.72 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 16 Soybeans closed at $8.78 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $283.80, down $1.50,

Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at $28.31, up $0.40


Wheat futures settled 7 to 11 cents lower in CHI, and 5 to 7 cents lower in KC and MPLS. Reuters reports that wheat acreage in India has dropped off by 26% this year. Indian wheat plantings have been delayed by a week due to high temperatures. The US winter wheat crop condition improved 1 point overall on the week. NE winter wheat lost a condition rating point from last week, while KS improved a point to 47% good to excellent. KS is one point ahead of its five year average for emergence at 97% complete, while OK emergence is a point behind at 93%. The latest export prices according to the IGC show that US HRW at the Gulf is still $23/ton more expensive than French wheat. Jordan did not receive any offers on a 100,000 MT tender due to difficult terms, forcing it to retract the tender. Egypt is tendering for wheat for Dec 21-31 delivery. Results are expected tomorrow morning.

Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.57 1/2, down 7 cents,

Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.09 1/2, down 7 cents


Live cattle futures settled with triple digit losses on Turnaround Tuesday, after posting gains of $1.70 to $2.475 on Monday. Feeder futures also reported triple digit gains on Monday, but gave back 45 to 72.5 cents today.  The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/23 was 32 cents higher to $171.83.  Wholesale beef prices were higher today with choice boxes up $1.02 to $203.81. Select boxes were $1.19 higher to $192.24. Overall, cash cattle trade last week averaged $194.62 dressed (-$4.75 from the week before) and $123.33 live (-$1.86). It was inactive on Monday, but a few dressed sales of $195 were reported today. Estimated WTD slaughter is 110,000 head, up 3,000 head from last week, but 7,000 head smaller than the same period a year ago.

Dec 15 Cattle closed at $130.250, down $1.925,

Feb 16 Cattle closed at $132.500, down $1.700,

Apr 16 Cattle closed at $133.100, down $1.350,

Jan 16 Feeder Cattle closed at $164.675, down $0.725

Mar 16 Feeder Cattle closed at $163.000, down $0.475

Apr 16 Feeder Cattle closed at $164.575, down $0.450

Lean Hogs

Hog futures settled with losses of 22.5 to 77.5 cents. The Dec contract was the firmest today, closing lower for the second consecutive day after posting a $1.80 trading range. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/20 was down 15 cents to $55.37. The monthly Cold Storage report showed a decline in pork inventory, at 602.656 million pounds as of October 31, the smallest for a month since January 2015. Supplies were down 8% from September as disappearance exceeded production. The USDA average carcass cutout price gained $1.32 today, to $73.62. Bellies were the sole cutout with a lower average price today (-$0.99), while picnics led the charge higher, gaining $6.41 to an average price of $50.56/cwt. The national weighted average cash hog base price was 21 cents lower today. Regional prices were off 4 pennies in both IA/MN and the WCB. Estimated WTD slaughter totaled 438,000 head this afternoon, 2,000 head larger than last Monday and Tuesday, and 1,000 head more than the same two days in 2014.

Dec 15 Hogs closed at $57.225, down $0.225,

Feb 16 Hogs closed at $57.500, down $0.775

Apr 16 Hogs closed at $62.650, down $0.500


Cotton futures settled 11 to 44 cents higher, with nearby Dec15 the strongest. Dec15 cotton traded higher for the second day in a row, correcting from the drop of 154 points last Friday. Mar16 cotton reversed its two-day slide and closed 34 points higher today. Weekly Crop Progress data showed the national cotton harvest was still 12 points behind the five year average pace, with 30% still in the field as of Sunday night (11/22/2014: 24%). Harvest wrapped up in AR and LA last week. The Texas harvest is still 15 points behind at 60% complete. The Cotlook A Index was 69.35, down 25 points from the previous day. ICE reported that there were 59,664 certified bales in delivery warehouses on Nov 23, with 715 new certs and no decertified bales. There were 3,263 bales awaiting review. USDA put the AWP for this week at 46.88 and dropped the LDP/MLG to 5.12 from 5.41 cents last week.

Dec 15 Cotton closed at 60.600, up 44 points,

Mar 16 Cotton closed at 61.940, up 34 points

May 16 Cotton closed at 62.770, up 29 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353