News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures ended the day sharply higher with the Dec14 contract up more than 10 cents. The weekly EIA report this morning showed ethanol production at 937,000 barrels per day, up from 896,000 barrels per day for the previous week; the largest weekly jump in production since April. Ethanol stocks declined to 17 million barrels, down from 17.9 million barrels a week earlier. Producing 4.5% more, but still ending the week with 5% less inventory is bullish ethanol and bullish corn use. November ethanol futures ended the day nearly 4 cents higher, and are up about 40 cents from their low on October 2. May corn futures on the Dalian exchange (China) closed at the US equivalent of $9.95. Trade ideas for weekly export sales are in the 700,000-950,000 MT range.
Soybean futures were sharply higher on the session, with November closing 8.5 cents above the intraday high from Tuesday. December meal futures were up more than $22 on the session. Bean oil was also sharply higher; with the Dec14 contract up $1.39 on the day after trading at the highest price for a front month contract since mid-August. Oil World announced that it is expecting rising soy oil prices in the Oct-Mar time period, and the traders responded quickly. A leading palm oil analyst also changed his tune on prices for that commodity to a more bullish one. January soybean futures on the Dalian exchange closed at the US equivalent of $19.98. USDA export sales numbers tomorrow morning are expected to be in the 1.0 MMT to 1.5 MMT range.
Wheat futures ended the day mostly 4 to 9 cents higher. Concerns regarding global wheat production supported the market again today, as analysts attempt to size up potential losses to the Russian, Australian and Argentine wheat crops. Egypt relies heavily upon Russian wheat exports, and would need to replace any reduction in availability from Russia. India has reportedly raised its state-set purchase price of wheat 3.6%. Trade ideas for USDA weekly export sales are in the 300-400,000 MT range.
Cattle futures were lower on the day, down 20 cents in the October, and off more than a dollar in the Dec contract. Feeders were mixed with the front month higher and the deferred contracts mostly lower. The US Dollar index rallied late in the session, picking up nearly 600 points on the day. Wholesale beef prices were higher today. The afternoon report showed the Choice boxes up $2.07 at $253.63 per cwt., and the Select product was reported 67 cents higher at $239.77. Cash cattle trade is inactive on light demand in most regions. Asking prices for cash cattle appear to be in the $172-173 range. Estimated week to date FI slaughter at 329K head is 12,000 below last week and 33,000 less than the same point a year ago.
Hog futures were lower again today. The USDA average pork carcass cutout value was reported $1.63 higher today, at $99.35. Loins and bellies were the most supportive. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.81 at $96.59. Estimated week to date slaughter at 1.286 million head is 7,000 light vs. last week, and 14,000 behind the same point a year ago. Cash hog prices were reported lower today, down $1.60 in the ECB, $1.10 lower in the WCB, and off $1.30 in the IA/MN marketing area.
Cotton futures were 25 to 88 points higher on the day, with Dec14 the firmest, touching its highest price since September 16. The US dollar index rallied to end the day up nearly 600 points. Crude oil futures were about 60 cents higher. Cotton futures on the Chinese Zhengzhou exchange closed mostly higher. The Pakistan government announced a new support price for cotton, committing to protect the interest of the domestic farmers. The Cotlook A index is at 70.30, up 0.30. Cert stocks were reported UNCH again at 15,928 bales.