AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. Fairly broad areas of the Corn Belt are below 100% of normal precip for July, but are now drawing on subsoil moisture from June. The Allendale brokerage firm released a 174.1 bpa national average yield guess.  If realized, that would be 5.9% above the previous record set in 2009, and a year over year jump of more than 9.6%.  A Reuters poll on Friday showed that the market is currently trading a 170.5 bpa average yield, 5.2 bpa above the USDA July figure. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money decreasing their net long position in corn by 22,693 contracts as of July 22 giving them a net long position of 70,408. 


Soybean futures are currently trading 8 to 10 cents higher after a mixed close on Friday. The front month Aug 14 contract was more than 35 cents higher last week on old crop crusher and export demand.  The 1.2835 MMT of new crop bookings to China in the weekly export sales report on Thursday limited the November futures loss for the week to less than 2 cents per bushel. The current low prices attracted another 360,000 MT to China confirmed on Friday. Mexico bought 134,700 MT of soybean meal for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year.  As of the close on July 22, CFTC shows managed money selling 12,454 net contracts of soybeans, flipping them from a net long to a net short position of 18,543 contracts. 


Wheat futures are trading 4 to 7 cents lower this morning. The Sept 14 KCBT contract displayed the most strength and was up nearly a dime on Friday.  GULF CIF SRW bids slipped a nickel for July this morning, currently at +$.40 September.  Trader talk regarding crop quality in France continues  as rains hit the east and northern portions of the country.  As of the close last Tuesday, managed money account sold 8,024 contracts in CBOT wheat for the week, giving them a net short position of 54,519 lots.   They were still net long 13,407 contracts in KC as of last Tuesday


Cattle futures are called 20 to 50 cents higher this morning. The USDA COF report was released on Friday. USDA pegged the July 1 On Feed at 97.61% of year ago, lower than trade ideas.  Marketings were expected to be about 98%. The actual figure was reported at 98.24%.  USDA estimated June placements at 93.81% vs. trade estimates above 96%.  The Cattle Inventroy report showed beef cow numbers down 2.5% vs. 2 years ago, with replacement heifers also down 2.4%. There was no July report in 2013 due to budget cuts, thus the 2 year comps. Wholesale beef prices continue to be stout, with Choice boxes up $1.82 at $257.38 on Friday and Select up $1.49 at $254.33.  Cash cattle were SHARPLY higher last week, with some $165 trades reported on Friday. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in live cattle by 2,722 contracts last week bringing their overall net long position to 118,655 contracts. The CME Feeder index was $1.16 higher at $214.19.

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are expected to open steady to 20 cents lower this morning. The average pork carcass cutout value was $0.48 higher at $131.79 on Friday. Bellies snapped back $6.88 to close at $144.61.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.85 at $131.19 but is still well above futures.  Estimated weekly slaughter (w/ Sat estimates) was reported at 1,862,000 head compared to 1,990,000 head as this time last year.  The IA/MN area carcass base prices were reported $0.72 lower.  The ECB was $1.10 lower, and the WCB was $0.54 lower.  As of the close last Tuesday, managed money accounts reported a weekly decrease of 1,077 contracts in lean hog longs giving them a net long position of 54,871 contracts. 


Cotton futures are trading 7 points lower to 34 points higher this morning after another tough week.  Cert stocks dropped to 176,373 bales, with 6,539 decerts and one new cert. This is common on the old crop to new crop transition. The USDA marketing year for cotton ends on Thursday. The next futures delivery contract is October.  The Cotlook A Index is unchanged at 83.05.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in cotton by 4,006 contracts bringing their overall net long on July 22 to 3,618 contracts.  

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353