News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures ended Monday a quarter higher to 2 cents lower. Dec corn traded at $4.09 this morning but could not hold it. The weekly Crop Progress report tonight shows that corn conditions continue to drop, with 68% good to excellent, down three percentage points from a week ago. The Brugler500 scale now has corn down 6 points from last week to 372. Weekly USDA export inspections this morning totaled 1.041 MMTs for the week ending June 25. That was a decrease of 7.24% from the previous week, but an increase of 14.76% from the same week a year ago. The quarterly USDA reports come out tomorrow. Pre-report trade estimates have the average guess for corn acreage at about 89.29 million acres, which would be a slight increase from the March 31 intentions. On average, the trade expects corn stocks in all positions to be about 4.555 billion bushels, with published estimates fitting into a 281 mbu range from 4.419 to 4.700 bbu.
Soybean futures finished mixed, from up a half cent to down 6 cents. Condition ratings declined further in the Crop Progress report published this afternoon, with the Brugler500 rating dropping 3 points to 363. The trade estimated planting @ 93-95% completed. USDA reported 94%, 3 points shy of the five year average but right on top of the expectations. The weekly export inspections for the week ending June 25 were 296,860 MT, a 40% increase from the week before, and a change of + 74.96% from the 2014 figure for this week. YTD inspections are 12.40% larger than last year. Acreage estimates for the USDA report tomorrow average 85.171 million acres, about half a million acres larger than the March Intentions report. Estimates for soybean stocks as of June 1 average 670 mbu, with a 116 mbu range from 604 mbu to 720 mbu. The high end would be 177% of a year earlier.
Wheat futures closed sharply higher again on Monday, up 8 cents in MPLS, 12 in KC, and 18 in CHI. July Chicago wheat reached $5.87, the highest price since January 8. That contract is up 15.85% in the last 10 days. The USDA Crop Progress report states that wheat condition has dipped slightly, with the Brugler500 showing a one point drop to 318. The United States doubled its winter wheat harvested this week, up to 38%. Traders were looking for 35% with 48% being average. Kansas made the biggest dent, currently at 48% compared to 8% on June 21. US export inspections for the week ending June 25 were 316,515 MT. Current year exports are 62.92% of the 2014 exports at this time, reported at 1.165 MMT. Trade estimates for the Tuesday USDA report average 55.867 million acres, which would be up about 500,000 acres from the March report. The average estimate for wheat stocks is 718 mbu, which would be up 21.6% from a year earlier.
Live cattle futures finished the session with several triple digit gains, with August the strongest at $1.35. Feeder futures closed with higher prices as well, up $1.825 in August and $2.00 in September. Cash cattle traded mostly from $147 to $150 last week, dressed sales were mostly $237 - $238. Activity today was mostly clean up trade. Choice boxed beef prices were quiet, and gained a dime on average up to $253.22. Average select box prices increased by 49 cents from Friday, to $248.64. Estimated Monday FI slaughter of 113,000 head was 5K larger than last Monday but 5K smaller than the same Monday in 2014.
Lean hog futures concluded the Monday session mixed, off $1.05 to $1.32 in the front months. Prices followed the H&P report, with large market hog numbers weighing on the nearby, but smaller farrowings and intentions boosting deferred futures. In recap, USDA showed market hog inventory was 9.44% larger than a year earlier as well as a smaller than expected June 1 breeding hog inventory; just 1.21% larger than a year earlier. The CME Lean Hog Index is off 49 cents to $78.13. Pork carcass cutout prices averaged $82.91 in the afternoon report, up $1.18. All primal cutouts were higher today, with exception to the loin. Ribs and bellies were the big gainers on the day, up $3.55 and $3.17 on average. Cash hog prices were higher this afternoon in both the IA/MN and WCB regions, by 47 cents and 53 cents respectively. No prices were reported in the ECB due to confidentiality.
Cotton futures closed mixed on the first day following a strong up week. October cotton was up 18, but July, Dec and Mar16 were down 11 to 36 points. In the weekly Crop Progress report, the USDA reported that the cotton condition increased a point, to 56% good to excellent. Planting is now 2 points from being completed, and squaring was at 35% as of Sunday night, down from the five year average of 40%. Most acreage estimates for the Tuesday USDA report are 8.8 to 9.4 MA. The Cotlook A Index and the Forward A Index are both up 75 points each to 72.50 and 75.05 respectively. The USDA put the AWP for this week at 50.22, with the LDP/MLG at 1.78 cents. The first July delivery notices were reported today, as 31 notices (3,100 bales) were issued by SG Americas Secruities, and one notice (100 bales) was issued by Morgan Stanley.